Alright, let's talk about Google and AI. Specifically, this narrative that's building about Google’s AI chip business potentially "snatching" 10% of Nvidia’s revenue. That's the headline, anyway. But let’s unpack it, shall we?
Alphabet's stock is up—a hefty 75% since August. Good for them. And Sergey Brin is now richer than Larry Ellison. Again, good for them. But these are consequences, not causes. The *cause*, supposedly, is Google's AI prowess, specifically its chips. Meta *might* use them. That’s the rumor driving the surge. *Might*.
The Meta Factor: A Real Threat or Just Noise?
The Information is reporting that Meta is considering Google's chips. Okay. But "considering" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Companies "consider" things all the time. They explore options. They negotiate. It doesn't mean they're signing on the dotted line. And even if Meta *does* use Google's chips, what volume are we talking about? What price point? What specific AI tasks? The article provides none of these crucial details.
And then there's Nvidia itself. Their stock dipped, sure. But let’s not pretend Nvidia is suddenly irrelevant. They're still the world's most valuable company. One report estimates Google *could* take 10% of their annual revenue. Could. Based on what assumptions? What market analysis? What's the margin of error on that 10% figure? Is it plus or minus 5%? Plus or minus 20%? Because that makes a huge difference.
Consider Amazon's recent pledge of up to $50 billion for AI expansion. Impressive, right? But that's only the fourth-biggest AI deal of 2025. OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are dropping *half a trillion*. This AI arms race is expensive, and the players are betting big. Is Google truly equipped to compete at this scale?
And here’s where my skepticism really kicks in: Google's "Antigravity" AI coding tool. Remember that? Released, then almost immediately found to have a severe vulnerability that allowed malware installation. "Enormous trust assumptions and almost zero hardened boundaries," as one security researcher put it. Google knew about other vulnerabilities and didn't patch it yet. This is the environment where Google wants to take on Nvidia?
CFOs vs. AI: Skepticism or Just Common Sense?
The CFO Perspective: AI Skepticism in the Finance Department
It’s not just me. CFOs are apparently wary of AI, too. New studies show financial professionals are encountering AI-generated fraud – phishing emails, fake invoices, even voice cloning. They see the potential of AI (58% believe in it) but lack confidence in using it (only 39% feel confident). Data security and a lack of resources for learning AI platforms are major concerns.
Why CFOs Fear The Dark Side Of AI
Billtrust notes that AI could be used to detect fraud, scanning files and flagging potential issues. But the tough choices still need to go to human decision-makers. And that’s the rub, isn’t it? AI is a tool, not a replacement. It can augment human capabilities, but it can't replace human judgment—especially when it comes to high-stakes financial decisions.
I’ve looked at hundreds of earnings reports, and the one thing that jumps out at me is the language used to describe AI. It’s always “potential,” “opportunity,” “future growth.” Rarely is it “current revenue,” “proven profitability,” or “demonstrated ROI.”
And that brings me back to Google. They're launching AI platforms, supposedly competing with Nvidia, and simultaneously dealing with critical security flaws and CFOs who are nervous about AI-driven fraud.
Is Google's AI chip business a real threat to Nvidia? Maybe, eventually. But right now, it feels more like a calculated PR move designed to boost Alphabet's stock price. The underlying data—the actual numbers, the confirmed deals, the demonstrable revenue—simply isn't there to support the hype.
Forbes Daily: Alphabet Surges As Google Comes For Nvidia’s AI Business This is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling.
Google's AI Chip: A Risky Bet?
So, What's the Actual Upside?
Google's AI chip "gambit" is less a sure bet and more of a high-stakes poker game, with Alphabet betting big on a hand that might not be as strong as it appears.
